Traditionally, studies examine retrospective associations to understand climate change vulnerability; however, an important component of adaptation is the ability to look forward and plan in light of projected climate impacts.
But, what proportion of food-related health outcomes will be attributable to changes in climate in the near future?
This pillar responds to this question by estimating, for the near future (10-20 years), the frequency, magnitude, distribution, and determinants of health outcomes associated with climate change impacts on Indigenous food systems, security, and safety in partner regions and communities. Scenario planning is an approach for longer-term planning that, in this research, will project how future climate changes might impact food-related health outcomes.
To conduct this pioneering work, we will use participatory, mixed qualitative and quantitative methods to create scenarios that model future climate change impacts on agri-food, using 4 steps:
- Use participatory, qualitative methods to capture IK to characterize what specific weather trends are locally important in agri-food
(e.g. specific temperature or precipitation trends important for food systems, and health)
- Identify spatio-temporal associations between weather and health outcomes using quantitative modeling
- Interrogate downscaled climate models to project how these specific weather patterns might change in the short-term (10-20 years)
- Co-develop climate-health scenarios with communities and partners, and co-produce adaptation options that integrate Indigenous knowledge.